Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?

This paper analyses the effect of measurement error in the output gap on efficient monetary policy rules in a simple estimated model of the US economy. While it is a well-known result that such additive uncertainty does not affect the optimal feedback rule in a linear-quadratic framework, it is shown that output gap uncertainty can have a significant effect on the efficient response coefficients in restricted instrument rules such as the popular Taylor rule. Output gap uncertainty reduces the response to the current estimated output gap relative to current inflation and may partly explain why the parameters in estimated Taylor rules are often much less than what optimal control exercises which assume the state of the economy is known suggest. First version received: September 2000/Final version received: February 2001     

Central Bank transparency in theory and practice

We study the effects of Central Bank transparency on inflation and the output gap. Our intention is to illustrate, with the help of a small analytical model, how an imperfectly transparent Central Bank affects the two main macroeconomic variables, inflation and the output gap. The model tells us that transparency affects the variability of inflation and output but not their average levels. Then we examine the extent to which this conjecture is justified by the index of transparency constructed by Eijffinger and Geraats. Given the limitations of such indices, we only examine the correlations between the index of transparency and the macro variables in question. This analysis shows that the average magnitudes are not affected by transparency but their variability is. In the case of inflation, its variability benefits from the reduction of transparency and about 50% is explained by the variability in the transparency index. The effect on output volatility on the other hand is less clear, and in any case transparency seems to increase it rather than decrease it.     

Requiem for the unit root in per capita real GDP? Additional evidence from historical data

We present new evidence on the uncertain nature of nonstationarity – that is, trend stationarity vs. difference stationarity – of aggregate per capita real output, by submitting to a composite testing procedure a 20-country sample over an historically relevant time span. We find that the degree of uncertainty associated with the presence of a unit root appears to be well exceeding that shown by other studies conducted so far on cross-country historical data. For almost all the countries in our sample, inference appears to be strongly dependent on the type of test one makes use of, so that conclusions reached at early stages of a composite confirmatory testing procedure have to be frequently discarded at subsequent stages. Our reading of these findings points towards rejecting the assumption of temporal homogeneity of per capita GDP time series over long time spans, a prerequisite implicitly assumed in all studies looking for invariant statistical properties like stochastic or deterministic nonstationarity.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

MFA model to assess economic and environmental consequences of food production and consumption

Agri-food sector is a crucially important part of the society, because it is a major factor affecting public health and welfare and it also contributes – directly and indirectly – both to the environment and to the national gross product and employment. Improving sustainability of the agri-food sector implies production of nutritionally better food by using fewer inputs and by reducing environmental burden.In reducing environmental burden, it is essential to restrict the material throughput, to identify the hot spots and direct the measures to them. Improving performance of the food sector requires that the benefits and inputs be quantified in an unambiguous way and that the inputs are estimated for the whole production chain. A comprehensive view of the whole system is necessary.Here, the material flow approach (MFA) has been used to describe the Finnish food flux. The quantitative numerical data have been derived from the farm models' data base, and the data have been adjusted so as to comply with the production and consumption statistics of Finland. Using the compiled data an extended input–output model has been constructed. The model allows for the evaluation of some of the economic and environmental consequences, when the structure of food production and the patterns of food consumption are changed. The consequences can be traced within agriculture, within the food sector as a whole, or at the level of the nation-wide economy. In combination with other information the model, thus, serves as a practical tool for planning.The paper at hand gives an overview of the data base and the basic calculation principles of the model. The usability of the model is demonstrated with results from modelling examples, in which the share of organic production or the share of vegetarian food in the average Finnish diet has been increased. The possibilities and restrictions of the approach as well as some of the needs for further development are discussed.The study is the first step in developing MFA methods to analyse and to monitor the material flows of the Finnish food flux. The results have been used also in compiling the Finnish physical input–output tables. The study, thus, contributes to the overall development of the materials flow accounting.     

中国经济结构变动的投入产出分析

中国已进入了第十个五年计划这一重要的战略发展期.在此期间,一个重要的发展中枢性目标是进行经济结构的战略性调整,快速提升国际竞争力.本文基于投入产出分析理论,对中国经济体系中各产业总产出变动的主要变动因素(总消费变动、进出口变动、技术结构变动及投资结构变动等)进行了模型分解,试图发现中国产业结构变动的规律性特点,分析经济增长各影响因素在不同产业中的贡献,寻找如何提升产业水平及各产业国际竞争力的途径,为制定我国的经济发展战略提供决策依据.     

大学英语写作教学之我见

在大学英语教学中 ,写作教学是一个相当薄弱的环节。本文就改进大学英语写作教学 ,提高大学生的写作水平和语言应用能力 ,从四个方面进行了论述 :打好语言基础、熟悉各类文体的结构要领、适时纠正写作错误、培养用英语思维的能力     

企业创新投入产出关系及其实证研究——基于完全竞争市场结构下的分析

我国很多企业存在创新资源投入不足和失衡的问题,极大地制约了企业科技创新及研发活动的开展,造成创新效果不佳。本文运用理论模型和实证分析的方法,研究了完全竞争条件下的企业创新投入产出关系和投入资源分配问题,认为创新投入的人力要素、资本要素和创新产出存在非线性的幂函数关系,匹配的资源投入有利于提高创新效果,同时适度竞争和生产非专业化产品的市场环境对于企业创新活动有较大的推动作用。     

Bank Leverage Cycles and the External Finance Premium

By combining the approaches of Gertler and Karadi (2011) (GK) and Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) (BGG), I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with leverage constraints both in the banking and in the nonfinancial firm sector. I calibrate this “full model” to US data. The full model matches the relative volatility of the external finance premium and the procyclicality of bank leverage and thus outperforms both a BGG and a GK‐type model. For a reasonably calibrated combination of balance sheet shocks, the model reproduces a substantial share of the contraction (increase) of investment (the external finance premium) observed during the “Great Recession.”     

黄渤海地区影响农业产出因素的分析——基于Panel Data 模型

通过对黄渤海地区两市五省2002年—2012年农业产出进行描述性分析,并选取农业总产值作为代表农业产出水平的指标,将各省农业在经济中的地位、联合收获机的年末拥有量、化肥施用量、播种面积、受灾面积以及农村劳动力文化水平作为影响农业总产值的因素,利用2002年—2012年的省际面板数据,采用stata进行计量分析,对影响黄渤海地区各省农业总产值的因素进行测度。研究结果表明,我国黄渤海地区农业总产值受生产条件的影响较大;第一产增加值占GDP的比重对农业总产值也有较显著的影响,而劳动力文化水平程度的影响并不是很显著。     

The European Commission’s new NAIRU: Does it deliver?

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates – in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors, we run counterfactual simulations applying 1SD shocks to actual unemployment and to the structural variable – real unit labour costs. We find that the NAIRU in its new specification is still largely determined by actual unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation-stable economic activity and the accuracy of structural deficit figures.